tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4916 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4916 Southwest RSW 07:16 MCO 08:16 3% 1% 0.9% no record
WN 245 Southwest RSW 18:21 MCO 19:21 19% 8% 2.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 21m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 6h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 31m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 32m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150 5h 52m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → MCO 13:14AA 2750 7h 13m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 08:48 → CLT 10:52AA 2241 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 12:36 → MCO 14:26AA 2117 5h 38m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 6h 12m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:51 → ORD 14:18AA 2437 50m Chicago ORD 15:08 → MCO 18:50AA 1247 6h 59m 75% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON