Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	RSW 14:32	MSP 17:04	13%	5%	1.0%	77%
DL 2219 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:14	MSP 20:50	14%	6%	1.0%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	5h 43m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	5h 45m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 47m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981	7h 28m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	6h 02m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	6h 57m	96%	81%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668	9h 19m	100%	79%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → ORD 11:08UA 2347	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	8h 29m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:18DL 379	48m New York	LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:04DL 2313	6h 41m	51%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON