Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2613 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2613 RSW 06:03 → ORD 08:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1495 RSW 16:38 → ORD 18:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2613 American Flight history →	RSW 06:03	ORD 08:29	6%	2%	1.6%	93%
UA 2347 United Flight history →	RSW 08:44	ORD 11:08	7%	3%	0.9%	94%
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	16%	7%	0.9%	89%
UA 2472 United Flight history →	RSW 14:14	ORD 16:35	21%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 11:51	ORD 14:18	23%	7%	1.3%	33%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 19:13	ORD 21:39	24%	7%	1.6%	61%
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:38	ORD 18:56	26%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON