Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2365 RSW 12:46 → PHL 15:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest F9 4304 RSW 17:39 → PHL 20:46 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2365 American Flight history →	RSW 12:46	PHL 15:50	19%	8%	1.4%	76%
AA 1866 American Flight history →	RSW 17:56	PHL 21:01	21%	9%	1.6%	70%
F9 1578 Frontier Flight history →	RSW 12:42	PHL 15:51	21%	11%	3.1%	70%
AA 507 American	RSW 15:05	PHL 18:08	23%	9%	1.5%	no record
F9 4304 Frontier Flight history →	RSW 17:39	PHL 20:46	27%	13%	3.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON