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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1338 at 08:31, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1338 Southwest SAN 08:31 ABQ 11:26 10% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 88% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:03 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 6h 33m 94% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848 2h 51m Las Vegas LAS 12:53 → ABQ 15:31WN 2053 5h 54m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 7h 25m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 5h 25m 88% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:22 → ABQ 15:19AA 3053 7h 04m 93% 68%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:01 → ABQ 16:58AA 9 7h 58m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:01 → ABQ 16:58AA 9 6h 08m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON