Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 729 SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1179 SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 729 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ATL 13:49	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	SAN 14:18	ATL 22:00	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 725 Delta Flight history →	SAN 10:36	ATL 18:11	16%	4%	0.6%	87%
DL 843 Delta	SAN 13:00	ATL 20:16	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1179 Delta Flight history →	SAN 08:00	ATL 15:33	19%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON