Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 266 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 266 SAN 06:37 → AUS 11:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3622 SAN 13:26 → AUS 18:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 266 Southwest	SAN 06:37	AUS 11:28	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4486 Southwest	SAN 09:11	AUS 14:02	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:11	AUS 19:09	30%	10%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
OO 3464 SkyWest	SAN 08:04	AUS 13:02	30%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 3622 Southwest	SAN 13:26	AUS 18:17	35%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON