tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3623 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3623 Southwest SAN 06:41 BNA 12:38 11% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 3624 Southwest SAN 14:31 BNA 20:30 30% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 9h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 9h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 7h 11m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 13m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 8h 25m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 8h 52m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 7h 50m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 3h 15m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 10h 48m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 3h 08m Houston IAH 16:20 → BNA 18:27UA 2165 8h 27m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON