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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 390 SAN 08:24 → BOS 17:12 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 4675 SAN 09:31 → BOS 17:54 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AS 390 Alaska Flight history → SAN 08:24 BOS 17:12 27% 8% 1.0% 76%
B6 220 JetBlue Flight history → SAN 13:06 BOS 21:51 33% 16% 1.2% 74%
WN 4675 Southwest SAN 09:31 BOS 17:54 36% 12% 0.8% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702 7h 32m 78% 62%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 46m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558 7h 30m 78% 60%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:24AA 2343 55m Chicago ORD 17:19 → BOS 20:48AA 407 7h 44m 77% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON