tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2127 Southwest SAN 06:46 BWI 14:48 11% 2% 0.9% no record
WN 3630 Southwest SAN 13:06 BWI 21:12 29% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 8h 37m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 25m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 1h 17m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 26m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 8h 00m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 3h 20m Chicago ORD 20:12 → BWI 23:23UA 220 9h 48m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 9h 04m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → BWI 19:56AA 2855 10h 06m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON