tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 04m Portland PDX 10:33 → BZN 13:12AS 393 5h 22m 92% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848 2h 29m Las Vegas LAS 12:31 → BZN 15:42WN 2387 6h 05m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 7h 56m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 5h 48m 88% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530 1h 35m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 84% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709 2h 43m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 7h 08m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 3h 56m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 8h 01m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774 7h 19m 65% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → SFO 12:51AS 3347 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 13:56 → BZN 17:11AS 2062 · flown by Horizon 5h 07m 68% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON