tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1651 American Flight history → SAN 06:50 CLT 14:49 14% 3% 0.9% 86%
AA 1785 American SAN 13:00 CLT 20:43 27% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57DL 3139 8h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 9h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 9h 04m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 37m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132 9h 11m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:36 → PHL 15:03AA 2093 1h 56m Philadelphia PHL 16:59 → CLT 18:42AA 2074 9h 06m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:24AA 2343 2h 23m Chicago ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689 8h 55m 97% 75%
FrontierDetails → SAN 06:25 → DEN 10:03F9 2818 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:39 → CLT 19:01F9 1362 9h 36m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 49m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132 6h 35m 71% 58%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013 6h 52m 67% 51%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:36 → PHL 15:03AA 2093 49m Philadelphia PHL 15:52 → CLT 17:35AA 3012 7h 59m 54% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON