tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 367 at 12:36, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 367 Southwest SAN 12:36 CMH 19:55 27% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 9h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501 8h 39m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:24AA 2343 3h 12m Chicago ORD 19:36 → CMH 22:10AA 3447 · flown by Envoy 9h 06m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 8h 49m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:36 → PHL 15:03AA 2093 1h 32m Philadelphia PHL 16:35 → CMH 18:25AA 2592 8h 49m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 35m Chicago ORD 15:22 → CMH 17:49AA 3542 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 18:02 → CMH 19:32AA 3330 9h 42m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:29 → CMH 21:08AA 1348 6h 46m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON