tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 872 at 16:21, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 872 Southwest SAN 16:21 COS 19:45 31% 11% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 27m Houston IAH 19:52 → COS 21:29UA 6126 · flown by Mesa 8h 31m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest 6h 47m 97% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848 2h 49m Las Vegas LAS 12:51 → COS 15:49WN 2171 6h 12m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → COS 15:02AA 1170 7h 42m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 44m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 1h 49m Denver DEN 17:55 → COS 18:54UA 5861 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 89% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 49m Denver DEN 16:55 → COS 17:52UA 5308 · flown by SkyWest 4h 19m 73% 58%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON