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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 14 Alaska Flight history → SAN 12:42 DCA 21:00 35% 9% 0.9% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 49m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 9h 01m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 20m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 3h 43m Houston IAH 16:55 → DCA 21:18UA 235 10h 18m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 3h 30m Detroit DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030 9h 44m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 9h 22m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 19m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → DCA 18:57AA 2520 9h 37m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 7h 09m 66% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON