Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3641 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3641 SAN 06:17 → DEN 09:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2019 SAN 15:36 → DEN 19:03 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3641 Southwest	SAN 06:17	DEN 09:42	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1934 Southwest	SAN 07:22	DEN 10:47	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2829 United	SAN 07:00	DEN 10:32	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	19%	5%	1.2%	86%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	19%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 1840 Southwest	SAN 10:51	DEN 14:16	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	22%	7%	0.6%	87%
UA 2793 United	SAN 11:03	DEN 14:36	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	25%	8%	0.6%	77%
AS 1422 Alaska	SAN 08:43	DEN 12:00	26%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:53	DEN 20:36	28%	8%	1.2%	81%
AS 3029 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:48	DEN 19:23	28%	8%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
WN 1329 Southwest	SAN 14:16	DEN 17:42	29%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2019 Southwest	SAN 15:36	DEN 19:03	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON