Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 777 SAN 14:47 → DFW 19:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	12%	4%	1.7%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	15%	6%	1.7%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	21%	7%	1.6%	84%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	22%	8%	1.7%	84%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:29	DFW 12:23	25%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SAN 15:21	DFW 20:44	26%	10%	1.5%	77%
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	27%	10%	1.5%	78%
AA 1770 American	SAN 14:06	DFW 19:28	28%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:22	DFW 16:27	28%	9%	1.5%	76%
AA 2361 American Flight history →	SAN 16:31	DFW 21:36	29%	12%	1.4%	73%
AS 777 Alaska	SAN 14:47	DFW 19:39	33%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON