Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 754 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 754 SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 492 SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 754 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	DTW 13:48	12%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 1900 Delta	SAN 14:34	DTW 22:02	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 492 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:37	DTW 19:10	23%	5%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	51m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 19m	86%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	6h 29m	86%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON