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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching El Paso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 8h 03m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 1h 08m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 25m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:37 → ELP 15:33AA 1681 8h 13m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 85% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:27 → IAH 15:38UA 1980 1h 20m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 35m 82% 69%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:01 → ELP 18:57AA 555 8h 07m 99% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON