Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 735 at 11:16, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 735 Southwest	SAN 11:16	EUG 13:44	19%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	SAN 16:52 → SEA 19:41AS 1373	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 07m	93%	84%
Southwest Details →	SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848	3h 04m Las Vegas	LAS 13:06 → EUG 15:18WN 2065	6h 41m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 55m	90%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:17AS 1368	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	5h 32m	89%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	47m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	60%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON