Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1637 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1637 SAN 06:47 → EWR 15:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:57 → EWR 22:32 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1637 United	SAN 06:47	EWR 15:26	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	28%	9%	1.9%	81%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:57	EWR 22:32	38%	16%	1.1%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 34m	95%	69%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	1h 44m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	8h 11m	89%	67%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 24m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505	7h 50m	88%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON