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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Spokane on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 5h 57m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 3h 44m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 8h 09m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 22m 97% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250 4h 55m 89% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21DL 1219 5h 06m 90% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 14:52 → SEA 17:41AS 685 3h 49m Seattle SEA 21:30 → GEG 22:36AS 2071 · flown by Horizon 7h 44m 98% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709 2h 28m Seattle SEA 11:33 → GEG 12:38AS 454 6h 22m 98% 63%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:30 → BOI 13:46AS 2341 · flown by Horizon 1h 01m Boise BOI 14:47 → GEG 14:55AS 2259 · flown by Horizon 4h 25m 76% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 49m Los Angeles LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 4h 41m 70% 60%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709 50m Seattle SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon 4h 44m 61% 55%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → GEG 20:29AA 2757 8h 09m 71% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON