Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: AS 828 at 17:26, 33%.

Safest bet that day AS 828 SAN 17:26 → HNL 20:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 815 SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 828 Alaska	SAN 17:26	HNL 20:10	33%	9%	1.8%	no record
WN 4998 Southwest	SAN 09:42	HNL 12:41	39%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 815 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	HNL 12:18	45%	10%	1.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 03m	92%	70%
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 23m	98%	66%
United Details →	SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300	8h 17m	76%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON