Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4965 Southwest	SAN 11:11	HOU 16:20	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4505 Southwest	SAN 14:26	HOU 19:35	30%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 07m	98%	85%
American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	99%	77%
Southwest Details →	SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848	1h 28m Las Vegas	LAS 11:30 → HOU 16:35WN 334	5h 58m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 28m	66%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON