Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1071 SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 506 SAN 10:34 → IAD 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1071 United Flight history →	SAN 08:00	IAD 16:08	21%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 444 United Flight history →	SAN 12:57	IAD 21:05	22%	8%	0.7%	87%
AS 506 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:34	IAD 18:45	25%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	7h 26m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	7h 31m	95%	79%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 36m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	7h 37m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON