Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1980 SAN 10:27 → IAH 15:38 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2025 SAN 16:47 → IAH 21:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1980 United Flight history →	SAN 10:27	IAH 15:38	18%	6%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 618 United Flight history →	SAN 15:10	IAH 20:31	19%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 2760 United Flight history →	SAN 08:00	IAH 13:12	20%	5%	0.7%	89%
UA 2237 United Flight history →	SAN 11:58	IAH 17:25	21%	8%	0.7%	79%
UA 2025 United	SAN 16:47	IAH 21:59	22%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON