tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4225 at 12:51, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4225 Southwest SAN 12:51 IND 19:50 29% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:36 → PHL 15:03AA 2093 3h 16m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 09m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 9h 02m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120 9h 52m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482 8h 51m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861 6h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 8h 30m 93% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 2979 8h 10m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228 6h 44m 92% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → IND 17:52UA 2274 7h 37m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:24AA 2343 49m Chicago ORD 17:13 → IND 19:37AA 2418 6h 33m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 54m Chicago ORD 17:46 → IND 20:00UA 3628 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 62% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON