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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Jackson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 00m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 15:39 → JAC 16:47DL 509 6h 01m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 22m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 38m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 5h 40m 90% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:12 → JAC 14:59AA 1883 7h 39m 95% 66%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → JAC 19:08AA 3042 8h 18m 95% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → JAC 19:08AA 3042 6h 46m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON