Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 367 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 367 SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 12:00 → JFK 20:41 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	17%	7%	1.3%	87%
AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	18%	5%	1.3%	89%
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:05	JFK 22:04	22%	9%	1.0%	76%
AS 36 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:15	JFK 22:56	28%	8%	1.0%	80%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 12:00	JFK 20:41	30%	11%	1.5%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 09:06 → JFK 17:20DL 934	8h 05m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:33 → JFK 21:53DL 2378	8h 17m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	50m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON