Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:07, 39% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 222 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:42	KOA 14:27	20%	5%	0.6%	96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:16AS 1368	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	10h 37m	91%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:04AS 709	54m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02AS 518	9h 46m	73%	57%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	1h 10m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1138	8h 19m	73%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON