Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2026 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2026 SAN 07:14 → LAS 08:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1943 SAN 16:29 → LAS 17:53 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2026 Southwest	SAN 07:14	LAS 08:39	12%	5%	1.4%	no record
WN 1848 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:37	LAS 10:02	15%	6%	1.4%	89%
WN 1751 Southwest	SAN 11:12	LAS 12:37	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 3030 SkyWest	SAN 08:05	LAS 09:35	26%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	SAN 15:24	LAS 16:48	32%	11%	1.4%	no record
WN 1686 Southwest	SAN 13:09	LAS 14:33	32%	8%	1.4%	no record
WN 2356 Southwest	SAN 12:12	LAS 13:37	33%	8%	1.3%	no record
OO 3052 SkyWest	SAN 15:17	LAS 16:46	33%	11%	1.2%	no record
WN 2084 Southwest	SAN 13:59	LAS 15:23	33%	10%	1.3%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:52	LAS 17:21	34%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 1943 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:29	LAS 17:53	35%	11%	1.2%	59%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%
AS 2305 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:02	LAS 23:28	73%	0%	13.3%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON