Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3743 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3743 SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2175 SAN 14:32 → LAX 15:33 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	8%	5%	1.0%	95%
UA 2667 United	SAN 06:08	LAX 07:09	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	14%	9%	0.8%	91%
OO 3993 SkyWest	SAN 15:00	LAX 16:00	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2234 United	SAN 17:05	LAX 18:22	17%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2175 United	SAN 14:32	LAX 15:33	19%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON