Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: United via SFO, leaving 13:39, 68% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 220 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:05	LIH 11:28	24%	4%	0.8%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 47m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 52m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:16AS 1368	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 16:56 → LIH 20:23AS 237	11h 55m	92%	69%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 36m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	9h 03m	85%	68%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:04AS 709	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 24m	98%	63%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	1h 36m Honolulu	HNL 13:54 → LIH 14:44AS 1093	8h 37m	90%	30%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	48m San Francisco	SFO 08:52 → LIH 11:52UA 1111	8h 32m	61%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON