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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 54m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 5h 42m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 8h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 35m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:05 → MCI 18:46AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 46m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:08 → ATL 18:33DL 725 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:51DL 3023 8h 43m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 15m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 23m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 5h 37m 90% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 54m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → MCI 17:40DL 1470 7h 40m 74% 60%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 50m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903 5h 19m 68% 59%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 10m San Francisco SFO 16:29 → MCI 22:15UA 1515 6h 36m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON