tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Medford on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 96% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:53 → SEA 18:43AS 574 3h 57m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 8h 11m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:17AS 1368 3h 30m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 7h 45m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 1h 09m Portland PDX 14:52 → MFR 15:54AS 2125 · flown by Horizon 4h 50m 85% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322 5h 44m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 55m Seattle SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 83% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530 1h 10m Seattle SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 85% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest 4h 12m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON