tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:36, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 10h 03m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 47m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 55m Denver DEN 16:12 → MIA 22:22UA 445 10h 37m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:24AA 2343 2h 47m Chicago ORD 19:11 → MIA 23:35AA 1159 10h 31m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367 3h 36m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 13h 08m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719 9h 08m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 52m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 12:17 → MIA 21:07UA 1458 10h 52m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 52m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719 7h 23m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON