Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2168 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:23	MSO 12:11	18%	14%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	97%	91%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399	1h 26m Portland	PDX 10:55 → MSO 13:24AS 2146 · flown by Horizon	5h 34m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	SAN 14:52 → SEA 17:41AS 685	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	7h 03m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660	7h 51m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:28 → SEA 14:17AS 1368	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	91%	63%
United Details →	SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274	3h 14m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	99%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 16:52 → SEA 19:41AS 1373	49m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	5h 03m	40%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON