tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3339 at 15:16, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3339 Southwest SAN 15:16 MSY 20:52 30% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 42m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 1h 36m Houston IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738 6h 13m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 7h 52m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678 8h 24m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → MSY 16:10DL 2096 7h 55m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → MSY 23:03UA 1244 10h 02m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 52m Dulles IAD 18:00 → MSY 19:38UA 251 9h 38m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:22 → MSY 15:06AA 2627 6h 46m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:22 → MSY 15:06AA 2627 5h 51m 74% 58%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → MSY 19:01AA 2291 5h 39m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON