Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4866 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4866 SAN 07:31 → OAK 09:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3104 SAN 16:26 → OAK 18:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4866 Southwest	SAN 07:31	OAK 09:10	7%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3660 Southwest	SAN 08:38	OAK 10:17	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2115 Southwest	SAN 10:03	OAK 11:42	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2920 Southwest	SAN 13:02	OAK 14:41	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4240 Southwest	SAN 12:03	OAK 13:41	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4241 Southwest	SAN 14:57	OAK 16:36	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 468 Southwest	SAN 16:22	OAK 18:01	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3103 SkyWest	SAN 12:41	OAK 14:24	24%	10%	1.1%	no record
OO 3104 SkyWest	SAN 16:26	OAK 18:09	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON