tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 623 Southwest SAN 11:01 OGG 13:42 28% 6% 0.6% no record
AS 249 Alaska SAN 10:27 OGG 13:00 30% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 10h 53m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 9h 14m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 7h 52m 91% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 08:05 → LIH 11:28AS 220 3h 02m Lihue LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260 10h 14m 100% 67%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 1h 01m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:25AS 353 9h 21m 79% 64%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:04AS 709 1h 11m Seattle SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929 10h 03m 83% 55%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815 2h 17m Honolulu HNL 14:35 → OGG 15:25AS 1136 9h 18m 95% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 19m 58% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON