tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 496 at 10:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 496 Southwest SAN 10:16 OMA 15:31 15% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 12m Detroit DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest 8h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 9h 33m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 55m Houston IAH 20:20 → OMA 22:45UA 1216 8h 47m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54DL 2707 10h 54m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327 5h 39m 90% 78%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848 2h 34m Las Vegas LAS 12:36 → OMA 17:24WN 2270 6h 47m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 1h 59m Denver DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42UA 1436 6h 09m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:53 → OMA 15:54AA 2269 7h 34m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 52m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364 7h 48m 67% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON