Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 518 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 518 SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 1478 SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	9%	4%	1.6%	89%
UA 1016 United	SAN 06:40	ORD 12:53	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2054 American	SAN 07:26	ORD 13:33	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	23%	8%	0.6%	82%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	SAN 10:04	ORD 16:24	23%	8%	1.2%	82%
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	27%	6%	2.1%	75%
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:13	ORD 20:31	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	28%	9%	0.7%	82%
AA 2131 American Flight history →	SAN 13:07	ORD 19:29	29%	10%	1.2%	65%
UA 3776 United	SAN 11:07	ORD 16:51	32%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 3780 United	SAN 12:09	ORD 17:48	33%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	39%	8%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON