Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 399 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 399 SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 486 SAN 16:00 → PDX 18:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 399 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:50	PDX 09:29	12%	2%	1.2%	94%
WN 738 Southwest	SAN 10:01	PDX 12:43	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 576 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:04	PDX 13:43	21%	4%	1.0%	88%
WN 3667 Southwest	SAN 17:02	PDX 19:44	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 1402 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:03	PDX 16:36	25%	4%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 486 Alaska	SAN 16:00	PDX 18:36	26%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON