tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2093 American Flight history → SAN 06:36 PHL 15:03 14% 4% 1.2% 96%worse than usual
AA 433 American Flight history → SAN 09:21 PHL 17:45 22% 7% 1.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 8h 44m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 24m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174 8h 57m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 3h 52m Detroit DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686 10h 10m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 8h 57m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065 10h 20m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → PHL 20:15AA 423 10h 25m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 12:45 → PHL 21:12UA 1298 10h 57m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 52m San Francisco SFO 08:56 → PHL 17:22UA 2824 8h 02m 75% 65%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242 7h 37m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON