Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2309 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2309 SAN 06:56 → PHX 08:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3034 SAN 13:06 → PHX 14:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2309 Southwest	SAN 06:56	PHX 08:19	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1212 American	SAN 06:36	PHX 08:13	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4245 Southwest	SAN 07:56	PHX 09:19	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4328 Southwest	SAN 09:52	PHX 11:15	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3327 American	SAN 09:47	PHX 11:16	20%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 3668 Southwest	SAN 11:42	PHX 13:05	21%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 833 Southwest	SAN 15:46	PHX 17:09	24%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 3035 SkyWest	SAN 17:36	PHX 19:03	25%	13%	3.0%	no record
AA 3124 American	SAN 12:53	PHX 14:22	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	SAN 13:21	PHX 14:45	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:08	PHX 17:36	30%	11%	0.8%	74%
OO 3033 SkyWest	SAN 10:02	PHX 11:29	31%	15%	2.4%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	SAN 13:06	PHX 14:33	37%	13%	2.4%	no record
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON