Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4159 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4159 SAN 08:36 → RNO 10:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2611 SAN 14:46 → RNO 16:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4159 Southwest	SAN 08:36	RNO 10:19	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 748 Southwest	SAN 17:06	RNO 18:50	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2611 Southwest	SAN 14:46	RNO 16:30	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 2233 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:16	RNO 22:04	53%	27%	9.1%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON