tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3673 at 08:26, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3673 Southwest SAN 08:26 SAT 13:15 15% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 8h 51m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 8h 56m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 6h 38m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 08:37 → LAS 10:02WN 1848 1h 43m Las Vegas LAS 11:45 → SAT 16:29WN 4607 5h 52m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222 9h 43m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:45 → SAT 15:56UA 2030 5h 56m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → SAT 18:37AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 12m Chicago ORD 14:59 → SAT 17:59AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 44m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:27AA 2034 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → SAT 18:37AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 5h 15m 71% 60%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 16:23 → SAT 22:07UA 2281 6h 28m 68% 52%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SAT 19:48AA 2368 5h 28m 62% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON