Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3041 SAN 12:46 → SBA 13:54 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3112 SAN 13:34 → SBA 14:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3041 Southwest	SAN 12:46	SBA 13:54	18%	7%	3.9%	no record
OO 3112 SkyWest	SAN 13:34	SBA 14:46	22%	9%	1.8%	no record
AS 2175 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:32	SBA 23:44	7%	0%	19.2%	93%
AS 2177 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:49	SBA 14:02	37%	8%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON