Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 608 SAN 07:14 → SEA 10:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	15%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	16%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	19%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 709 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:16	SEA 09:05	22%	3%	1.4%	89%worse than usual
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:52	SEA 17:41	26%	6%	1.0%	82%
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 16:52	SEA 19:41	26%	7%	1.1%	93%worse than usual
AS 574 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:53	SEA 18:43	27%	6%	1.0%	79%
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:28	SEA 14:17	28%	5%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
AS 609 Alaska	SAN 09:34	SEA 12:23	33%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3422 Southwest	SAN 07:26	SEA 10:19	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 07:14	SEA 10:03	36%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON