Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2830 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2830 SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 3463 SAN 08:04 → SFO 09:52 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2830 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	SFO 08:04	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1835 United	SAN 12:40	SFO 14:23	27%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 4258 Southwest	SAN 15:31	SFO 17:10	28%	14%	1.2%	no record
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SAN 16:09	SFO 17:49	28%	13%	0.6%	76%
WN 3676 Southwest	SAN 07:21	SFO 09:00	29%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	SAN 11:01	SFO 12:47	30%	11%	0.6%	68%
OO 3211 SkyWest	SAN 13:04	SFO 14:47	31%	11%	1.2%	no record
UA 2274 United Flight history →	SAN 07:15	SFO 09:01	31%	9%	0.6%	53%
WN 3677 Southwest	SAN 11:31	SFO 13:10	32%	12%	1.3%	no record
AS 1450 Alaska	SAN 15:38	SFO 17:11	32%	13%	1.8%	no record
UA 1791 United	SAN 09:45	SFO 11:28	34%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 3347 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:04	SFO 12:51	34%	12%	1.3%	64%
WN 2794 Southwest	SAN 09:31	SFO 11:10	34%	14%	1.4%	no record
UA 1763 United Flight history →	SAN 13:39	SFO 15:19	35%	13%	0.6%	74%
WN 473 Southwest	SAN 13:21	SFO 15:00	35%	14%	1.2%	no record
F9 3381 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 10:25	SFO 12:12	36%	13%	7.3%	66%
AS 3305 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:09	SFO 10:52	41%	14%	1.4%	31%
AS 3463 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:04	SFO 09:52	44%	15%	1.6%	63%
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:14	SFO 17:49	72%	10%	3.8%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON